Checking In on the Contract Extension Signers

Before the season began/right as it began 6 players from the 2009 draft class signed extensions ranging from $38 million to $80 million.  With a little more than a third of the season in the books, let's take a look at all of the re-upped players' performances so far.

Stephen Curry
This is extension was one of the more tricky ones as it was clear that Curry deserved it, but the condition of his ankles were still in doubt.  Well, outside of a preseason incident in Portland, Curry's ankles have been just fine.  He has played in every Warriors game this year and has led to the team to a surprising 21-10 start.  Still his play hasn't been up to what we have seen out of Curry before as he is only shooting 42.8% from the filed, a career low (although he has been shooting 45% from the field over the past three weeks which is a huge improvement).  A lot of this can be attributed to being the focal point on offense without Monta Ellis (Only 37.7% of his field goal makes are assisted, by far a career low).  He is only taking 1.6 shots at the rim per 40 minutes, a career low which speaks to some lingering hesitance with his ankle.  Once he gains more confidence and forgets about his ankle woes this number should go up.  There have undoubtedly been some struggles, but his contract has definitely been worth it, especially when you consider what Curry would demand on the open market this summer.

DeMar DeRozan
It's the midsize/multi-year contracts for mediocre players that really kill a team's cap.  That is pretty much what this is.  DeRozan is the classic player on a bad team that will put up good point totals, but not much else.  The Raptors are actually 3.7 points per 100 possessions better when he sits.  DeRozan hasn't upped his assist rate (he has cut his turnovers though) and isn't much of a creator despite a 23.65 usage rate.  His improvements on offense have been nice, especially in the post where he is 20th best in points per play.  Still, his outside shooting (or lack thereof) hurts the Raps' spacing and the team shoots nearly 4% better at the rim without DeRozan.  His defense has improved, but it still isn't a big plus.  In the long run Toronto will regret this deal but, it hasn't been a complete disaster thus far.

James Harden
After being traded, Harden was promptly given the five year max from his new team, the Rockets.  So far, locking up The Beard for five years has looked like an excellent move.  He was probably the most efficient offensive player in basketball last year and his efficiency has obviously gone down with a higher usage. Despite that, he still is on the shortlist for most efficient on offense.  Harden is the number one player in the NBA in points per play as the pick and roll ball handler and has developed great chemistry with Omer Asik.  He draws fouls on nearly 13% of his possessions, an astronomical number.  He takes just above three fourths of his shots either at the rim or behind the three point line, a recipe for efficiency.  His defense has been mediocre and it obviously hasn't been the main focus of his energy.  His early leak outs have been a huge part of the Rockets' thriving transition game, but aren't the best strategy for defense.  With a third of the season gone it is clear that Harden is deserving of the "franchise player" type deal he got as he has lead Houston into the playoffs race.

Jrue Holiday
This contract is looking better and better by the day.  Outside of Harden, Holiday has been the best player of the extension signers.  He is in the running for the Most Improved Player award and has been playing at an all-star level.  Heck, he might even be the fifth best point guard in the NBA (My top 5 ranked by this season's play only: Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, and Holiday).  He has been the leader on an otherwise very average Sixers squad in the stead of Andrew Bynum.  He has blown away his previous career highs in points, assist rate, field goal percent, and PER.  There's no doubt that 18 points and 9 assists on 45% shooting along with stellar defense is production worthy of a player making scant over $40 million over four years.
      
Taj Gibson
Gibson so far this season has been a little underwhelming considering the money he signed for.  There are a couple of things that we know are a given with Gibson; his defense and rebounding will always be there.  He is still making a huge impact on both these categories when he steps on the court; the Bulls' defensive rating is nearly six points per 100 possessions better with Gibson and he hikes Chicago's rebound rate from a mark that would be 15th in the league to one that would be second.  The problem, of course, is offense.  He is shooting only 28% from 16-23 feet (for reference, Carlos Boozer is shooting 39% from there and Joakim Noah is shooting 37%).  Until this improves it's going to be tough playing him huge minutes.  I really think he can live up to his hefty contract, but he won't be able to until he improves his offensive game and and can get more consistent minutes.
    
Ty Lawson  
It's been a rough year for Ty Lawson to say the least.  He seems to have lost all confidence which is the opposite of what you would think a big contract would do to a player.  He isn't taking open looks and when he does shoot he is doing it horribly.  His 40.8% from the field, 30.8% from three, and 69.2% from the line are far below his career numbers.  He isn't assisting at the rate he got to last year and his PER is well below league average.  Lastly, the Nuggets are more than 8 points per 100 possessions better without Ty Lawson.  Yikes.  Doesn't sound like the things you want from a guy making $12 million a year.  While I do like Lawson's game and believe he might just be in a slump, I wouldn't be surprised if GM Masai Ujiri pulled the trigger on a trade.  He has immediately moved two other players after paying them big money (Aaron Afflalo, and Nene) so it is within the realm of possibility.

All statistics courtesy of Hoopdata, Basketball Reference, mySynergySports and NBA.com                                  

The Warriors 4/1 Pick and Pop

One particularly interesting play I've noticed the Warriors running this year is a 4/1 pick and pop.  That is, a pick and pop where the power forward is the ballhandler and the point guard is the screener.  The Warriors most often run it with David Lee and Stephen Curry.  Last night against the Bobcats they ran it to perfection for one of Curry's career high eight threes.

Steph Curry enters the ball to David Lee in the post and starts to run through like he is clearing out.  Lee has been deadly in the post (14th best points per play in the league per Synergy) so this is an option the Bobcats must respect.

Instead of clearing out though, Curry sets a screen on Bismack Biyombo and Lee dribbles around him towards the middle.  Now Lee has the option to continue down the middle and score or pass to the weakside wing or corner if Kemba Walker doesn't step up to stop him.

Kemba Walker does step out to stop Lee, but that takes him away from Curry.  By the time Biyombo  recovers and Walker can go back to Curry, he is already starting his shooting motion.  One of Lee's eleven assists and Curry's eight threes.  This play is a quick hitter that most teams will have no idea how to defend.  It could end with Lee barreling down an open lane or a Steph catch and shoot three.  Here it is in real time:

     

Draymond Green's Game Winner

After surviving a Shane Battier three pointer miss on one end, the Warriors came back with a chance to win the game.  Golden State had numerous players they could go to to win it.  Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, and David Lee had big games.  Stephen Curry is the team's best player.  Draymond Green is...wait...nobody thought the ball was going to go to the rookie second round pick.  It was villain ball, the opposite of hero ball.  While the play wasn't designed for Green, he was an option that the ball actually went to, something you don't usually see late in games.

The play featured Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, the team's two best shooters coming around screens on opposite sides of the floor.  David Lee alluded to this in his post game interview with Sun Sports.  He also talked about the fact that if the Heat over helped (which they had been doing all night) the big man were to slip the screen.

That's exactly what happened on the near side of the court.  Shane Battier helped so as not to let Klay Thompson get the ball for a catch and shoot jumper.  This left Green free to dive to the rim.  Normally in this situation a defender on the weakside will rotate over, but the two weakside defenders are defending the other curl and can't help.

When Jack found Green for the easy layup I may or may not have let out a primal scream.

 
        

Where are the Warriors' Shots Coming From So Far?

This shot distribution chart isn't quite ideal.  Nearly 15% of the Dubs shots are coming from the area right above the elbow.  Not good.  Most of the Warriors threes this year have come from the wing.  Not good.  One thing I like to look at is the combined percentage of shots at the rim and at the two corners.  These, after all are the two best shots in the game.  As a reference, the San Antonio Spurs' number is 54.5.  Golden State's you ask?  46.9.  Again, not good.  I'm saving my rant on what Mark Jackson is running on offense for a later post, whichever way you look at it, it isn't pretty.  The number of long range jump shots show the reliance on isolation sets.  Honestly what do you see more often in isolation?  A quick penetration or layup or a slow dribble/stare-down followed by a fade-away jumper.  I haven't included a standard shot chart showing makes and misses.  This chart isn't necessary.  It's about the process; what matters is that the Warriors are taking good shots.  Even if the shots aren't falling, a good shot was taken and at this point, that's all that I really care about.

Shot chart courtesy of the NBA.com stats tool.   

A Fun Little Play the Warriors Have Been Running

There was one play ran a couple of times I specifically noted when watching Monday's game, a tough loss to Sacramento.  It uses some really basic components to get multiple options at a good look.

After coming down the floor, the ball goes in to Carl Landry (or David Lee) in the high post.  This in itself is a safety valve; if the play blows up, Landry can always isolate on his man.  After sending the ball to the elbow, Curry cuts to the corner where a normally a wing player will be waiting.

Curry sets a screen for Klay Thompson who cuts towards the basket where Landry can pass to him for an open layup.  It hasn't happened yet, but I imagine that Thompson also has the option to fake the middle and pop to the three point line.  Also notice on the weakside David Lee beginning to set a back screen for Harrison Barnes.

Thompson is covered up well on his cut which springs the second action: a wing two man game.  The great thing about this is whats happening on the weakside.  If hedged hard, Curry can slip a pass to Barnes for an open three behind David Lee.  David  Lee's man (right above the block/charge arc, facing the camera) won't be able to help on the three as he is already helping on the Klay cut.

The screen and roll is run as usual.  Curry commits and the weakside action ends.

Curry pulls up for an open jumper he makes at a high rate.  Curry misses this one, but the point is that a high percentage look was created.  Keep your eye out for this next game.  Here are two examples of it in real time:

Have a play or player you want to see broken down? Email jankeljustice@gmail.com  

The Warriors Clinch it on a Slip Screen

Golden State came away with a win against the Phoenix Suns, despite being outplayed much of the second half and David Lee and Stephen Curry combining to go 4-30.  Holding a one point lead with the ball in the final minute, the Warriors went to a bread and butter play designed to get Carl Landry the ball.  Landry was effective the entire game, scoring 17 points in a very efficient manner.  Here is the play:

Jarret Jack dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a Carl Landry screen, in what looks to be a standard screen and roll.

Instead of setting the pick however, Landry cuts to the opposite elbow.  This catches Marcin Gortat by surprise as he is expecting to have to hedge.

This leaves lots of room for Landry on a shot he can knock down consistently.

Some interesting things of note from the game:

• Landry was playing crunch time (and playing well), and I'm assuming this is because of Bogut's status.  The Lee/Landry lineup will have trouble with defense and on the boards, but it is tough to stop on offense.
• The Warriors played small a ton with Klay Thompson moving to the three and Stephen Curry playing off the ball.  I will look into the lineup numbers on this once there is a larger sample size.
• Festus Ezeli is a legitimate backup center.  He rebounded and covered space well and will learn the subtleties of defense from Andrew Bogut.   

  

 

The Suns Take Advantage of a Dubs Defensive Lapse

On of the biggest questions for the Warriors this year is going to be their defense.  Andrew Bogut is going to be a huge help, but he isn't a magician that will fix all the bad habits.  Golden State won their final preseason game, but showed some worrisome defense on this particular play in the second quarter.

The Suns come out with a pretty standard inbound set up with the point guard standing below a big man on the ball side.  Most side out of bounds plays feature the guard taking a down screen from the big man and popping to the top of the key.  The big is in the post/elbow area as a safety valve (and sometimes even the first option). 

As explained earlier, Luis Scola sets a down screen and the guard is opened up at the top.

He receives the ball at the top and everything seems fine.  The defense is in position and there aren't any mismatches.

The ball is swung twice and eventually ends up on the near wing.  On the far side, Scola is setting a screen for the inbounder who is cutting towards the lane.  You see David Lee helping out.  The initial receiver of the ball also cuts toward Scola after swinging it.

The initial ball handler now sets a screen for Scola whose man is already helping out.  The usually effective screen the screener.  Now David Lee is trapped and has to pick his poison.  Does he leave the man he's helping on and allow an easy layup or stay put and allow an open 18 footer (money for Scola).  He actually makes the right decision.  Jarret Jack, defending the screener, needs to help out on Scola.  He doesn't (and actually isn't even close) which shows either inexperience in Mark Jackson's system or lack of communication from his teammates.  Either way, the fact that such a wide open shot can be attained by a simple out of bounds play should be disturbing for all Warriors fans.  Hopefully strides can be made as a team defense this year and Bogut's communication will certainly help, but until the big Aussie comes back there will certainly be some stupid mistakes like this. 

Three Reasons Why Brandon Rush Should Start Over Harrison Barnes

Use Rush so as not to rush Harrison Barnes

 

Defense:

Lets be honest, Harrison Barnes is not getting his due as a defensive player.  He has a high basketball IQ and is an athletic specimen, always a good combination on defense.  That said, at this point in his career he is nowhere near Brandon Rush.

On defense at this level, experience matters.  Rush knows what Kobe's tendencies are and exactly the right time to come with the double team.  Rush has chemistry with other members of the team that will lead to a more organized team defense.  Now the importance of experience is subjective, but there are also some stats that back up Rush's impact on defense.

We could talk about how of all swingmen that played more than 20 games at 20 minutes per game, Rush was third in blocks per 40 minutes (James Johnson and Dwyane Wade were first and second, respectively).  We could talk about how he forces a turnover one out of every eight isolation possessions he defends.  Or we could talk about how of the Warriors top six defensive units from last year (minimum of 24 minutes), five included Rush.  I believe Barnes can develop into a stud on the defensive end, but for now I'll go with the proven player.

Fit:

Last year was a tough one for Dubs fans.  Only eight Warriors units finished the year with a positive one year adjusted plus minus.  Four of those eight lineups featured Klay Thompson and Brandon Rush as the wings. Thompson is starting this year and Rush should be with him.  These two fit together perfectly.  Rush can take the offensively superior of the two wings they are playing and cover for the sometimes laterally slow Klay.  On offense, both players are versatile off the ball and can stroke it coming off screens, which opens up all kinds of inventive options.

Outside of set plays, there are a numerous options that the Warriors can use on offense, and numerous players that need to be satisfied.  David Lee is going to want some isolations.  Andrew Bogut needs a couple of post ups per game, and Stephen Curry and Thompson will get their fair share of high screens.  The last thing Golden State needs is another player that needs the ball.  Rush is the opposite of that as he can let the first teamers do their thing while cutting to the rim or spotting up from three.  The Warriors offense scored 3.52 more points per 100 possessions with Rush on the floor last year.

Development:

Some people believe that putting rooks (btw: in the trailer for NBATV's Rooks series, they asked all the rookies what a rook was.  Barnes replied "a castle in chess."  I'm loving this guy more and more) right in helps them and others think that easing them in is better.  As you may have guessed, I am of the second persuasion.

There are so many more options with Barnes coming in with the second unit. He has been working on his off the ball game, but he is still most effective as a weapon with the ball in his hands.  Coming off the pine he will have the chance to become the second unit's "star" and score some quick points.  North Carolina is an elite program, but the NBA is still a huge leap and should take some time to get accustomed to.  Once he knows the NBA game better, Barnes should no doubt be given a starting role.  But until then, the best way to prepare for the moment when his name is called first at the Roaracle, is too not be thrown to the wolves. 

         

Golden State's Double Elbow Set

During the Warriors preseason game against the Los Angeles Lakers, they found themselves down eight during the second quarter.  Golden State went to a set play that Dubs fans should get used to seeing.  A lot has been said about the Warriors possibly running their offense through the two bigs and having the various shooters curl of screens.  That is exactly what happens in this in this play.

Things start off in a "Horns" look with a double high post and a man in each corner.  Charles Jenkins dumps the ball to David Lee and cuts through the middle.  The first option is here where Lee can just take his man one on one if it is a mismatch.

While Lee holds the ball, Jenkins cuts to the corner to set a screen for Klay Thompson.  Thompson's defender has to make a choice, go over or under the screen.

Thompson now has to read what hid defender did.  If the defender had gone under the screen, Klay would have popped out for an easy (for him) two.  As it is the defender went over the screen which means Thompson has to cut backdoor.

The Lakers help defense covers up the backdoor cut well.  So the play is over right? Not so much.  After the initial action fails, Carl Landry sets a down screen for Charles Jenkins.  The player that set the initial screen, Jenkins, is receiving a screen.  This is a basic screen-the-screener concept.  Because he was defending the screener,  Jenkins' defender had to help on Klay, leaving Jenkins with a ton of room when he gets the screen.

Jenkins receives the ball, but chooses not to shoot.  Now, Carl Landry has great post position.

Landry goes to work down low and finishes with a fade away jumper.

This is definitely a complex set, but not one without its merits.  There are so many options the defense has to defend that eventually a mistake will be made.  Now, just imagine the great passer Andrew Bogut surveying the floor from the elbow and Steph Curry coming of the down screen.  The Warriors versatile personnel can be used in some really interesting ways that will hopefully eventually lead to the P word. 

What Does Jarret Jack Bring to the Warriors

There will not be a crisis when Stephen Curry goes out of the game

What does he bring to the table?

• Smart ball handler who does not turn it over (16th highest assist/turnover ratio among players who had played at least 20 games at over 15 MPG) 
• Great pick and roll ball handler (0.94 points per possesion (PPP), 19th in the NBA)
• Polished scorer who shot above 40% from every spot on the floor
• Can hit from deep (shot a good but not great 36.1% on spot up threes)
• Creates his own offense (only 27.1% of his baskets were assisted)
• Great rebounder (4.6 rebounds per 40 minutes)

What does he take off of it?

• Not a good defender (allowed 0.89 PPP overall 302nd in the league and averaged a mere 0.81 steals per 40 minutes)
• Inefficient, high volume isolation player (shot 34% on isolations and only drew a foul 3.5% of the time.  Despite that, isos were 15% of his possessions)
• High usage (23.32) for a player of his caliber

When Chris Paul was traded last offseason, Jarret Jack was put into the starting point guard role.  He did not do a bad job taking over for the best point guard in the NBA.  This year Jack will spell Stephen Curry and be a solid spot starter, something the Dubs were in sore need of with Curry's ankle woes.  He will take off some pressure to start that Curry might feel.  I am very interested to see how coach Mark Jackson uses Jack.  Jack has the size to defend 2s and the handle to play the point.  One thing I want to see is for Jack to be in the game with Curry.  Curry can be curling off screens and hitting threes and Jack can be handling the ball.  Jack adds a lot of options and can be part of some very unique lineups for this Warriors team.    

What Does Carl Landry Bring to the Warriors?

Carl Landry was a sneaky good pickup by the Warriors

 

Carl Landry

What does he bring to the table?

•             Scoring of the bench (12 PPG in 24 MPG last season)

•             Efficient post up player (1.03 PPP (points per possession), seventh in the NBA)

•             Great finisher off of offensive rebounds (First in the league with 1.49 PPP off on putbacks and shots off of offensive rebounds)

•             Good range for a big man, excellent pick and pop jumper

•             Draws fouls well (Had a 7.1 and1 percentage 14^th in the league, drew fouls on 15% of post ups)

What does he take off it?

•             Middling defender, not a great rim protector (0.29 BPG last season)

•             Can be somewhat of a black hole once he gets the ball

Overall I liked this pickup for the Warriors.  They filled a big need with a good player at a low price.  There is not much more you can ask for.  The only concern I have is with Golden State's second unit's defense.  Landry will not add much and the center spot is still the Warriors biggest question mark.  That said, Landry adds versatility, efficient offense, and much needed depth to the Warriors.