Checking In on the Contract Extension Signers

Before the season began/right as it began 6 players from the 2009 draft class signed extensions ranging from $38 million to $80 million.  With a little more than a third of the season in the books, let's take a look at all of the re-upped players' performances so far.

Stephen Curry
This is extension was one of the more tricky ones as it was clear that Curry deserved it, but the condition of his ankles were still in doubt.  Well, outside of a preseason incident in Portland, Curry's ankles have been just fine.  He has played in every Warriors game this year and has led to the team to a surprising 21-10 start.  Still his play hasn't been up to what we have seen out of Curry before as he is only shooting 42.8% from the filed, a career low (although he has been shooting 45% from the field over the past three weeks which is a huge improvement).  A lot of this can be attributed to being the focal point on offense without Monta Ellis (Only 37.7% of his field goal makes are assisted, by far a career low).  He is only taking 1.6 shots at the rim per 40 minutes, a career low which speaks to some lingering hesitance with his ankle.  Once he gains more confidence and forgets about his ankle woes this number should go up.  There have undoubtedly been some struggles, but his contract has definitely been worth it, especially when you consider what Curry would demand on the open market this summer.

DeMar DeRozan
It's the midsize/multi-year contracts for mediocre players that really kill a team's cap.  That is pretty much what this is.  DeRozan is the classic player on a bad team that will put up good point totals, but not much else.  The Raptors are actually 3.7 points per 100 possessions better when he sits.  DeRozan hasn't upped his assist rate (he has cut his turnovers though) and isn't much of a creator despite a 23.65 usage rate.  His improvements on offense have been nice, especially in the post where he is 20th best in points per play.  Still, his outside shooting (or lack thereof) hurts the Raps' spacing and the team shoots nearly 4% better at the rim without DeRozan.  His defense has improved, but it still isn't a big plus.  In the long run Toronto will regret this deal but, it hasn't been a complete disaster thus far.

James Harden
After being traded, Harden was promptly given the five year max from his new team, the Rockets.  So far, locking up The Beard for five years has looked like an excellent move.  He was probably the most efficient offensive player in basketball last year and his efficiency has obviously gone down with a higher usage. Despite that, he still is on the shortlist for most efficient on offense.  Harden is the number one player in the NBA in points per play as the pick and roll ball handler and has developed great chemistry with Omer Asik.  He draws fouls on nearly 13% of his possessions, an astronomical number.  He takes just above three fourths of his shots either at the rim or behind the three point line, a recipe for efficiency.  His defense has been mediocre and it obviously hasn't been the main focus of his energy.  His early leak outs have been a huge part of the Rockets' thriving transition game, but aren't the best strategy for defense.  With a third of the season gone it is clear that Harden is deserving of the "franchise player" type deal he got as he has lead Houston into the playoffs race.

Jrue Holiday
This contract is looking better and better by the day.  Outside of Harden, Holiday has been the best player of the extension signers.  He is in the running for the Most Improved Player award and has been playing at an all-star level.  Heck, he might even be the fifth best point guard in the NBA (My top 5 ranked by this season's play only: Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, and Holiday).  He has been the leader on an otherwise very average Sixers squad in the stead of Andrew Bynum.  He has blown away his previous career highs in points, assist rate, field goal percent, and PER.  There's no doubt that 18 points and 9 assists on 45% shooting along with stellar defense is production worthy of a player making scant over $40 million over four years.
      
Taj Gibson
Gibson so far this season has been a little underwhelming considering the money he signed for.  There are a couple of things that we know are a given with Gibson; his defense and rebounding will always be there.  He is still making a huge impact on both these categories when he steps on the court; the Bulls' defensive rating is nearly six points per 100 possessions better with Gibson and he hikes Chicago's rebound rate from a mark that would be 15th in the league to one that would be second.  The problem, of course, is offense.  He is shooting only 28% from 16-23 feet (for reference, Carlos Boozer is shooting 39% from there and Joakim Noah is shooting 37%).  Until this improves it's going to be tough playing him huge minutes.  I really think he can live up to his hefty contract, but he won't be able to until he improves his offensive game and and can get more consistent minutes.
    
Ty Lawson  
It's been a rough year for Ty Lawson to say the least.  He seems to have lost all confidence which is the opposite of what you would think a big contract would do to a player.  He isn't taking open looks and when he does shoot he is doing it horribly.  His 40.8% from the field, 30.8% from three, and 69.2% from the line are far below his career numbers.  He isn't assisting at the rate he got to last year and his PER is well below league average.  Lastly, the Nuggets are more than 8 points per 100 possessions better without Ty Lawson.  Yikes.  Doesn't sound like the things you want from a guy making $12 million a year.  While I do like Lawson's game and believe he might just be in a slump, I wouldn't be surprised if GM Masai Ujiri pulled the trigger on a trade.  He has immediately moved two other players after paying them big money (Aaron Afflalo, and Nene) so it is within the realm of possibility.

All statistics courtesy of Hoopdata, Basketball Reference, mySynergySports and NBA.com                                  

Serge Ibaka's Expanded Game

Before the season started, the Oklahoma City Thunder made an unexpected move trading away sixth man of the year James Harden.  While many have skewed this trade into a Westbrook vs. Harden scenario, the truth is that the choice was between Serge Ibaka and Harden.  The choice was really one of basketball theory; what would be better title nucleus, three perimeter ball handlers or two ball handlers and a big man?  The Thunder went the conventional route with the big man and so far it has worked.

The Thunder have the second best record in the NBA and Serge Ibaka's improved play has been a huge part of that.  He has improved in almost every facet of the game and has posted career highs in minutes, points, rebounds, free throw percentage, and field goal percentage.  All this while still being an intimidating force at the rim and improving on on his rotations.

When Harden left it was clear that somebody was going to have to step up on offense and he has clearly done that.  His shooting has improved drastically and he has become maybe the best pick and pop player in the league.  He is shooting 61.9% from 10-15 and 50% from 16-23 feet.  He is getting the ball more often on the pick and roll and finishing at a much higher rate.  It is also clear that a lot of this has to do with confidence.  He is encouraged to take shots and the Thunder have started running plays for him.  He is even experimenting with the three point shot.

Sure, James Harden is developing into a superstar, but Serge Ibaka is playing the best basketball of his career.  It isn't clear yet if the Thunder made the right decision, but it is clear that Serge Ibaka is about dis life.          

Harden and Lin Rolling

A couple of weeks ago, a fair number of smart NBA analysts were clamoring that the Harden/Lin backcourt was a complete failure.  They were saying Lin should come off the bench or even that he should be traded.  To be fair, the two man combo had played horribly posting a -1.4 net rating.  Still, it was an instant reaction we too often see in the national media.  The two had played merely a month of basketball together, without training camp, and with much of that month without their head coach, Kevin McHale.

Newsflash: sometimes it takes a little bit of time for players to game chemistry.  So far in December, the duo has been outscoring opponents by 8 points per 100 possessions.  This has probably more to do with acclimation than anything.  The two are learning how to play off each other and it has been devastating.  Both players are near perfect fits for the Rockets super speed, spread pick and roll, drive and kick offense.  While Lin isn't a spot up threat on Harden pick and rolls, he can catch the ball on the perimeter and quickly drive or run another PnR while the defense is out of position.  And remember, Harden is no slouch spotting up as he as posted 1.2 points per play on spot up opportunities.  Both players are lethal in transition and combine them with the athletic Chandler Parsons and you have a three man unit that scores 20.3 fast break points per 48 minutes.      

Still, there are some redundancies with the Harden/Lin pairing.  Both players should be primary ball handlers and while Harden can be quite good off ball, the same can't be said about Lin.  Because of this, McHale has been starting to stagger Harden and Lin's minutes.  Lin's number of minutes per game with Harden off the court have more than doubled in December and this two man unit isn't the Rockets' most used as it was the first month of the season.

In related news: the Rockets are on a five game winning streak and are sitting at 6th in the west.  They've been one of the best offensive teams in the league and are playing an exciting brand of basketball.  The playoffs weren't expected for this Rockets team, but if Harden and Lin keep building chemistry, who knows what the future holds.  

All statistics courtesy of NBA.com and mySynergySports           

Player File: James Harden

The Player File will appear every weekend and go in-depth on a certain player's strengths and weaknesses, accentuated by video and stills. 

One of the biggest stories going into the season was the James Harden situation.   With Harden up for a contract extension, the Thunder weren’t willing to pay up and promptly traded him in a surprising deal to the Houston Rockets.  I won’t spend this piece ranting on the trade, many have already done that.  My opinion in a couple of sentences: You were a no-call away from being up 2-0 in a series and championship chances don’t come often.  You may get there once and never get back.  Remember when Payton/Kemp, or Walton/Lucas/Hollins were the next big things.  What happened there.  Anyway, Harden was given the five year deal by the Rockets and the rest has been history (literally; only Jordan and Wilt have combined for more points in first two games with a team).  But how is Harden getting his points?  Why is he so efficient?  What makes him such an unstoppable offensive player?  We’ll look at a couple of things from his first two games with the Rockets.

Shot Chart Don’t Lie:

These are the shot charts from Harden’s first two games.  Notice anything? Not many inefficient top of the key threes.  Only a couple midrange jumpers, almost all off the pick and roll.  And SOOOOOO many shots at the rim.  Remember, shot charts don’t even record fouls.  Considering Harden has shot 23 free throws combined over the two games, there are certainly a couple other efficient shots not recorded.  So how does he get these shots?

Transition:

To put it simply, James Harden is a monster in transition.  The combination of his long stride, euro-stepping prowess, and ability to finish through contact make guarding him in this situation nearly impossible.  One of the things that makes him so hard to deal with is the way he holds the ball over his head, tempting opponents to go for the steal and foul him. In transition last year, he drew a foul a whopping 17.6% of the time. The other thing that makes him so tough in this situation is the euro-step.  He can finish with either hand, making it nearly impossible to predict which side he’s going to go to.  And that’s before you factor in that he is weaving from side to side, all the while tempting defenders with the ball.  Last year, transition was 19% of his total offense, second behind the pick and roll per Synergy Sports.  He has already used his transition prowess effectively as you’ll see in this cut-up from the first two games.

Pick and Roll:

The pick and roll is Harden’s bread and butter.  Need a sure two points?  Just clear everybody out and run a high screen and roll.  Harden shot 45% on the pick and roll last year and was fouled almost 17% of the time per Synergy Sports.  His efficiency is due to the fact that he almost always gets to the rim of the pick and roll.  Usually when Harden comes around the screen he sees this:

Harden attacks the body of the big man, keeping him backpedaling.  This doesn’t allow the hedger to recover and set his feet to block a shot.  The ball is once again raised over his head forcing all kinds of silly fouls.  Oh yeah, and if you help off Harden’s teammates in the corners he’s a killer passer.  The main effect of the pick and roll is springing for an attack Harden at the rim.  And from Hoopdata.com: He shot 70% at the rim last year, 9^th in the NBA among guards (ironically one spot ahead of Kevin Martin).  Some of Harden’s pick and rolls so far this year:

 

Spot Ups and Cuts

Going by points per possession from Synergy Sports, Harden was the 3^rd ranked cutter and 28^th ranked spot up shooter.  That’s pretty damn good.  Harden’s basketball IQ contributes to his strong sense of when and where to cut and his ability to finish in traffic comes in handy once he gets the ball.  When it comes to spot ups, Harden is just a flat up good shooter.  His 58 eFG% last year on threes put him top thirty in the league, and this season Harden has been hitting them as efficiently as ever.  One of the most common shots you see Harden take is the wing three off of a dribble handoff from a big man (most notably Nick Collison last year).  His astounding 1.32 PPP on handoff plays last year was ranked first in the NBA by Synergy Sports, and he shot above 50% on three pointers on this play type.  We haven’t seen that Collison play yet, but it is sure to pop into the playbook at some point.

NBA Power Rankings: The Three Title Contenders

KD and LBJ start right where they left off

 
Media day has passed, training camp has begun, and the preseason is about to get underway.  With a mere three weeks to go until the regular season, it's time to arbitrarily rank the teams.  The rankings are decided by a combination of outlook, current affairs, and other completely subjective categories.  This first post focuses on the three teams that I think have a real possibility of winning the title.

1. Miami Heat
The best player on the planet, the all time three pointers made leader, the best shooting guard in the league, and a big man who saved them from a playoff collapse.  Who knows what crazy lineups coach Erik Spoelstra will throw out there, but no matter who is on the floor, everything will revolve around LeBron James.  James will be guarding power forwards on one end and running the whole offense on the other.  He has hinted at living in the paint like he did during the Finals, and if that doesn't scare NBA teams I don't know what does.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder did not make any big moves to keep pace with the Lakers, instead opting to let their players natural improvement better the team.  Why are the Thunder ahead of the Lakers you ask?  Guards.  Steve Nash is a shadow on defense and at this point Kobe Bryant is just going on reputation.  There is no doubt that Dwight Howard is the best defensive player in the league, but there is just no way he will be able to stop James Harden and Russel Westbrook every single time they easily slice into the lane.  Also, Kendrick Perkins has always been Superman's kryptonite and OKC still has a far superior bench than Los Angeles.  Either way, I'm looking forward to some fun spring battles.    

3. Los Angeles Lakers
On second thought, I do know what else would scare NBA teams.  This.  I am incredibly excited to see what this team does with its various weapons.   On paper there is no doubt in my mind that this is the best team in the NBA.  On paper.  I remember that being said about a certain team in 2004.  The parallels are stunning.  The injured big man (Karl Malone/Dwight Howard), and veteran point guard (Gary Payton/Steve Nash).  Now I doubt that this team will have some of the work ethic, and ego issues that that team had, but there are still some wrinkles that need to be creased.  Kobe has never had to deal with a ball dominant backcourt mate like Nash before and vice-versa.  To put it kindly, Pau Gasol has not been playing the most inspiring basketball lately and anything can happen with Ron A  Metta World Peace on the floor.  The biggest question of course is Dwight Howard.  If Howard can play at the level he has before for the Magic, and just do not see how this team can be stopped.  Lets go through the options: Nash/Howard pick and roll (quivering on the floor), Nash/Gasol pick and pop, Gasol or Howard post up, Kobe ISO, MWP corner three.  Did I tell you that I can't wait to see this team?

Saturday: The next tier