Three Trades That Make Sense

Why it works for the Bucks:
They get the big name player they want. Whether or not signing Josh Smith to a long term max deal is a good decision is a discussion for another day, but the Bucks seem intent on doing it. They only give up Ersan Ilyasova, a player they don't seem committed to building around anyway, just after signing him to a long term deal.

Why it works for the Rockets:
Ilyasova doesn't muck up the flexibility Houston this summer and is a perfect player for this team. He can shoot from outside, is a massively underrated rebounder, and doesn't play defense which, well, fits with this team. While Terrence Jones is a really nice prospect, it's unlikely he passes either Marcus Morris or Patrick Patterson on the depth chart and the Rockets have already been floating him out per Adrian Wojnarowski. Ilyasova is better than both of these established players and on an affordable long term deal.

Why it works for the Hawks:
It's pretty much a given at this point that J-Smoove is not going to re-sign in Atlanta so the best they can do is move him for something. Here, they get a really nice young player in Jones and an expiring deal in Samuel Dalembert. They also keep their max cap space this summer. (Side note: oddly enough, if I were to pick a player for Jones' game to mirror it would be Smith's. Athletic tweener, lefty, takes so dumb shots, lots of potential, good on D.)

Why it works for the Rockets: 
Houston is the most iffy team in this deal. While this move doesn't compromise their cap space, it's questionable whether or not the Rockets would want to take on the aging Marion. His contract is expiring next year and they would be able to re-sign him on the cheap, but at that point he would be 36 with plummeting athleticism. Still: he is a perfect fit for this Rockets system (similar in ways to the SSOL era Suns) and they have would have to give up relatively little to acquire him.

Why it works for the Mavericks:
They get Marion's deal off their books and effectively begin the rebuilding process. At this point the playoffs are out of reach and they are better off cutting money and tanking. Hickson is a expiring and while they won't have his Bird Rights it would be better off to let him go anyway. The sweetener is the Blazers 2014 unprotected 1st round pick.

Why it works for the Blazers:
This is a dream deal for Portland. They let go of the already-being-shopped Hickson and get a better player in return. Hayward has been a huge positive impact whenever he has stepped on the floor for the Jazz and he still is on his rookie deal. Tony Douglas is a thrown in to make the money work, but has been a quite solid role player this season and is better than Ronnie Price and Nolan Smith.

Why it works for the Jazz:
They get a poor man's Gordon Hayward in Jae Crowder and a guy with a ton of potential in Donatas Motiejunas. While he hasn't gotten consistent minutes yet, Donuts is one of the most versatile big men you'll find around the NBA.

Why it works for the Suns:
(Waiting for you to stop laughing about Monta Ellis and Michael Beasley on the same team) For whatever reason the Suns are intent on getting Ellis and this is a fairly effective way to do it. They give up the unhappy Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley who has been shopped like crazy. They give up the Lakers' pick that they get if LA misses the playoffs, but also get back a serviceable center in DeJuan Blair.

Why it works for the Spurs:
They get the ultimate Spurs player in Jared Dudley, and while his defense isn't up to par with Stephen Jackson's, Kevin Durant getting his points is a given at this point. Marcin Gortat, made one of the best pick and roll big men in the league by Steve Nash, should thrive with creative players like Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. While Tiago Splitter has been a much improved player this season Gortat is just better. Not to mention that Splitter's asking price this summer will likely be something only a little cheaper than Gortat's current deal.

Why it works for the Bucks:
They get Monta Ellis off their hands, get a likely mid-first round draft pick, and get a solid young player and his Bird right's in Splitter. They give up a non-factor in Joel Pryzbilla and only have to take on StackJack's expiring deal.

Lineup Watch 12/10/12

The Good


Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, [insert big man here]
To say this four man lineup has been awesome would be an understatement.  We're not even going to talk about the incredible 128.2 points per 100 possessions.  This lineup would obviously seem like an offensive juggernaut, but it's the other things that are so surprising.  Despite its the small nature, this lineup's total rebound rate is well above league average and they aren't fouling either.  They are defending at a high level, especially for a small lineup.  Now all they need is for Scott Brooks to give them more burn.

Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao
Nope, this isn't a mistake.  This lineup is actually supposed to be under the "Best" lineups header.  When not injured, this Cleveland starting five is actually one of the best in the league.  Their 11.6 net rating is 0.2 above the Heat's starting lineups and well above the Thunder's.  They have a healthy 109.3 offensive rating, slightly surprising when you take into account the lack of shooting from either forward (I dare you to look at Gee and Thompson's shooting splits.  It's not pretty).  The good defense is mostly due to Varejao's brilliance and the improvement of Thompson.  The best part of this lineup is the rebounding.  The offensive rebounding to specific.  Varejao and Thompson are ranked 3 and 23 respectively in offensive rebounding rate.  If this lineup was a team it would lead the league by a mile.  Why are the Cavs so horrible then?  Their next three most played lineups have a combined -36.1 in net rating.

The Bad

Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat
They've played the eleventh most minutes in the league.  They have a -17.7 Net Rating.  If they were a team, they would be 0.1 away from having the worst offensive rating in the league and would easily have the worst defensive rating.  Ladies and gentlemen, it's your 2012-13 Phoenix Suns starting lineup.  Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley have never been a creators and to say that about Michael Beasley would be a compliment.  They have no focus on offense to go to.  We haven't even gotten to defense yet.  Scola has never been a great defensive player and what skills he had are declining as he ages.  Marcin Gortat is slow in his rotations and has trouble containing guards on pick and roll plays.  If the perimeter players are being blown by (which they are), there's not much help inside.  Hey, look on the bright side, at least Phoenix's second most used lineup has a 122 defensive rating...wait, what?

Any Celtics Lineup Without Kevin Garnett
To put it simply, the Celtics are absolutely awful when Garnett steps off the court.  Worse than the Wizards kind of awful.  It's not the offense that is the problem (Boston is only 0.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Garnett on), it's the defense.  Only six teams in the three point era have won more than 40 games with a defensive rating as bad as the Celtics' without Garnett.  That may seem like a lot, but all those teams had offensive ratings of at least 110.  The Celtics' offensive rating?  102.  Without Garnett the Celtics have nobody to protect the rim, help, and defensive rebound.  Unless Jared Sullinger or Fab Melo suddenly becomes a defensive stalwart, I'm pegging Boston as a non-contender.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com 

The Suns Take Advantage of a Dubs Defensive Lapse

On of the biggest questions for the Warriors this year is going to be their defense.  Andrew Bogut is going to be a huge help, but he isn't a magician that will fix all the bad habits.  Golden State won their final preseason game, but showed some worrisome defense on this particular play in the second quarter.

The Suns come out with a pretty standard inbound set up with the point guard standing below a big man on the ball side.  Most side out of bounds plays feature the guard taking a down screen from the big man and popping to the top of the key.  The big is in the post/elbow area as a safety valve (and sometimes even the first option). 

As explained earlier, Luis Scola sets a down screen and the guard is opened up at the top.

He receives the ball at the top and everything seems fine.  The defense is in position and there aren't any mismatches.

The ball is swung twice and eventually ends up on the near wing.  On the far side, Scola is setting a screen for the inbounder who is cutting towards the lane.  You see David Lee helping out.  The initial receiver of the ball also cuts toward Scola after swinging it.

The initial ball handler now sets a screen for Scola whose man is already helping out.  The usually effective screen the screener.  Now David Lee is trapped and has to pick his poison.  Does he leave the man he's helping on and allow an easy layup or stay put and allow an open 18 footer (money for Scola).  He actually makes the right decision.  Jarret Jack, defending the screener, needs to help out on Scola.  He doesn't (and actually isn't even close) which shows either inexperience in Mark Jackson's system or lack of communication from his teammates.  Either way, the fact that such a wide open shot can be attained by a simple out of bounds play should be disturbing for all Warriors fans.  Hopefully strides can be made as a team defense this year and Bogut's communication will certainly help, but until the big Aussie comes back there will certainly be some stupid mistakes like this.