Three Trades That Make Sense

Why it works for the Bucks:
They get the big name player they want. Whether or not signing Josh Smith to a long term max deal is a good decision is a discussion for another day, but the Bucks seem intent on doing it. They only give up Ersan Ilyasova, a player they don't seem committed to building around anyway, just after signing him to a long term deal.

Why it works for the Rockets:
Ilyasova doesn't muck up the flexibility Houston this summer and is a perfect player for this team. He can shoot from outside, is a massively underrated rebounder, and doesn't play defense which, well, fits with this team. While Terrence Jones is a really nice prospect, it's unlikely he passes either Marcus Morris or Patrick Patterson on the depth chart and the Rockets have already been floating him out per Adrian Wojnarowski. Ilyasova is better than both of these established players and on an affordable long term deal.

Why it works for the Hawks:
It's pretty much a given at this point that J-Smoove is not going to re-sign in Atlanta so the best they can do is move him for something. Here, they get a really nice young player in Jones and an expiring deal in Samuel Dalembert. They also keep their max cap space this summer. (Side note: oddly enough, if I were to pick a player for Jones' game to mirror it would be Smith's. Athletic tweener, lefty, takes so dumb shots, lots of potential, good on D.)

Why it works for the Rockets: 
Houston is the most iffy team in this deal. While this move doesn't compromise their cap space, it's questionable whether or not the Rockets would want to take on the aging Marion. His contract is expiring next year and they would be able to re-sign him on the cheap, but at that point he would be 36 with plummeting athleticism. Still: he is a perfect fit for this Rockets system (similar in ways to the SSOL era Suns) and they have would have to give up relatively little to acquire him.

Why it works for the Mavericks:
They get Marion's deal off their books and effectively begin the rebuilding process. At this point the playoffs are out of reach and they are better off cutting money and tanking. Hickson is a expiring and while they won't have his Bird Rights it would be better off to let him go anyway. The sweetener is the Blazers 2014 unprotected 1st round pick.

Why it works for the Blazers:
This is a dream deal for Portland. They let go of the already-being-shopped Hickson and get a better player in return. Hayward has been a huge positive impact whenever he has stepped on the floor for the Jazz and he still is on his rookie deal. Tony Douglas is a thrown in to make the money work, but has been a quite solid role player this season and is better than Ronnie Price and Nolan Smith.

Why it works for the Jazz:
They get a poor man's Gordon Hayward in Jae Crowder and a guy with a ton of potential in Donatas Motiejunas. While he hasn't gotten consistent minutes yet, Donuts is one of the most versatile big men you'll find around the NBA.

Why it works for the Suns:
(Waiting for you to stop laughing about Monta Ellis and Michael Beasley on the same team) For whatever reason the Suns are intent on getting Ellis and this is a fairly effective way to do it. They give up the unhappy Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley who has been shopped like crazy. They give up the Lakers' pick that they get if LA misses the playoffs, but also get back a serviceable center in DeJuan Blair.

Why it works for the Spurs:
They get the ultimate Spurs player in Jared Dudley, and while his defense isn't up to par with Stephen Jackson's, Kevin Durant getting his points is a given at this point. Marcin Gortat, made one of the best pick and roll big men in the league by Steve Nash, should thrive with creative players like Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. While Tiago Splitter has been a much improved player this season Gortat is just better. Not to mention that Splitter's asking price this summer will likely be something only a little cheaper than Gortat's current deal.

Why it works for the Bucks:
They get Monta Ellis off their hands, get a likely mid-first round draft pick, and get a solid young player and his Bird right's in Splitter. They give up a non-factor in Joel Pryzbilla and only have to take on StackJack's expiring deal.

Lineup Watch 12/18/12

The Good

Jrue Holiday, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner, Thadeus Young, Lavoy Allen
As a team, Philadelphia has a 99.3 offensive efficiency, 20th in the league.  That low mark is in spite of the starting lineup which is putting up astronomical numbers on the offensive end.  They are scoring at a rate 3 points per 100 possessions higher than the top offensive team in the league, Oklahoma City.  Putting Thad Young at the four opens up the floor for and puts a ton of pressure on a defense to rotate and make decisions.  Evan Turner's improved jumper and Lavoy Allen's midrange game help as well.  Now, getting back to the original point.  If the starting lineup has played so well on offense, what brings the Sixers' efficiency to such low levels?  Probably the fact that Philly's next most used lineup is scoring at a level far below that of even the Wizards.

Eric Bledsoe, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf
The Clippers improved bench unit is one of the main reasons this Clips team is better than the one that was swept in the second round last year.  This unit sports a net rating (points scored per 100-points allowed per 100) that would easily eclipse that of the top team in the league (more than double, in fact).  This lineup's defense is stingier than any team in NBA history's and the offense would 5th in the league.  Eric Bledsoe, Matt Barnes, and Ronny Turiaf are energy guys that will cut, defend, and do the dirty work.  Jamal Crawford is lethal off the dribble and in the running for sixth man of the year.  And Lamar Odom, despite his...plumpness...is still one of the smartest players in the league.  There will surely be regression, but as of now, this unit is one of the best in the NBA.        

The Bad

Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson
No lineup featuring Al Jefferson is expected to be a defensive stalwart, but holy hell this is bad.  Gordon Hayward has an unearned reputation as a great defensive that is just not true.  The backcourt is small and Randy Foye especially can be picked on.  No semblance of rim protection behind the porous perimeter D is a recipe for disaster.  On the bright side, this unit is an offensive juggernaut with the two big men doing their thing inside while the others spot up along the arc.   
            
All statistics courtesy of NBA.com      

The Impact of Derrick Favors

Favors seems to be having fun posterizing people

One of the players pegged for a breakout year by most knowledgeable basketball fans is Derrick Favors.  The Georgia Tech product laid low for most his first couple of years, but looked absolutely monstrous in the playoffs last year.

Utah was a completely different team on defense with Favors in the game.  He hedged hard on the pick and roll and sprinted back to his man.  He rotated hard to protect the rim.  Overall, the Jazz allowed 15 less points per 100 possessions with Favors on the floor.  That’s fifth in the league, just ahead of players like Avery Bradley and Andre Iguodala (Kevin Garnett is first for those who were wondering).  This possession pretty much epitomizes it.

Favors hedges on the screen and roll and puts his hand up to bother the passer.  When Tiago Splitter (not even Favors' man) gets the ball Favors rotates quickly and absolutely abuses Splitter.
The question this year will be whether or not he will be able to find enough minutes to be effective.  Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson should each get above 30 minutes a night and the third over all pick of last year's draft, Enes Kanter, lost 51 pounds this offseason and has looked impressive in the preseason.  So where does this leave Favors?

On offense, Favors is an efficient player that will do the dirty work and doesn't need the ball to score.  Last season, he posted 1.19 points per possession as the pick and roller screener, ranked sixteenth in the league.  Offensive rebounds and cuts combined to make up 36% of his total offense.   He score above 1.07 PPP on each of those play types, a great recipe for success.

I expect to see around 24 minutes a night for Favors until he really asserts him self or Jefferson or Millsap is traded (a big possibility).  Utah has experimented with their super-big lineup where Millsap plays the three.  I expect to see more of this lineup, but Millsap isn't enough of a shooter to not limit spacing and his slow lateral speed will certainly when facing premier scorers from the three.
In a season filled with story lines, the Jazz's murky big man situation will be one of the most intriguing ones to watch.  One thing is clear though: Derrick Favors deserves minutes, and if he keeps up the type of play he has shown in flashes, the Jazz will have a big time game changer.