Serge Ibaka's Expanded Game

Before the season started, the Oklahoma City Thunder made an unexpected move trading away sixth man of the year James Harden.  While many have skewed this trade into a Westbrook vs. Harden scenario, the truth is that the choice was between Serge Ibaka and Harden.  The choice was really one of basketball theory; what would be better title nucleus, three perimeter ball handlers or two ball handlers and a big man?  The Thunder went the conventional route with the big man and so far it has worked.

The Thunder have the second best record in the NBA and Serge Ibaka's improved play has been a huge part of that.  He has improved in almost every facet of the game and has posted career highs in minutes, points, rebounds, free throw percentage, and field goal percentage.  All this while still being an intimidating force at the rim and improving on on his rotations.

When Harden left it was clear that somebody was going to have to step up on offense and he has clearly done that.  His shooting has improved drastically and he has become maybe the best pick and pop player in the league.  He is shooting 61.9% from 10-15 and 50% from 16-23 feet.  He is getting the ball more often on the pick and roll and finishing at a much higher rate.  It is also clear that a lot of this has to do with confidence.  He is encouraged to take shots and the Thunder have started running plays for him.  He is even experimenting with the three point shot.

Sure, James Harden is developing into a superstar, but Serge Ibaka is playing the best basketball of his career.  It isn't clear yet if the Thunder made the right decision, but it is clear that Serge Ibaka is about dis life.          

Lineup Watch 12/10/12

The Good


Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, [insert big man here]
To say this four man lineup has been awesome would be an understatement.  We're not even going to talk about the incredible 128.2 points per 100 possessions.  This lineup would obviously seem like an offensive juggernaut, but it's the other things that are so surprising.  Despite its the small nature, this lineup's total rebound rate is well above league average and they aren't fouling either.  They are defending at a high level, especially for a small lineup.  Now all they need is for Scott Brooks to give them more burn.

Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao
Nope, this isn't a mistake.  This lineup is actually supposed to be under the "Best" lineups header.  When not injured, this Cleveland starting five is actually one of the best in the league.  Their 11.6 net rating is 0.2 above the Heat's starting lineups and well above the Thunder's.  They have a healthy 109.3 offensive rating, slightly surprising when you take into account the lack of shooting from either forward (I dare you to look at Gee and Thompson's shooting splits.  It's not pretty).  The good defense is mostly due to Varejao's brilliance and the improvement of Thompson.  The best part of this lineup is the rebounding.  The offensive rebounding to specific.  Varejao and Thompson are ranked 3 and 23 respectively in offensive rebounding rate.  If this lineup was a team it would lead the league by a mile.  Why are the Cavs so horrible then?  Their next three most played lineups have a combined -36.1 in net rating.

The Bad

Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat
They've played the eleventh most minutes in the league.  They have a -17.7 Net Rating.  If they were a team, they would be 0.1 away from having the worst offensive rating in the league and would easily have the worst defensive rating.  Ladies and gentlemen, it's your 2012-13 Phoenix Suns starting lineup.  Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley have never been a creators and to say that about Michael Beasley would be a compliment.  They have no focus on offense to go to.  We haven't even gotten to defense yet.  Scola has never been a great defensive player and what skills he had are declining as he ages.  Marcin Gortat is slow in his rotations and has trouble containing guards on pick and roll plays.  If the perimeter players are being blown by (which they are), there's not much help inside.  Hey, look on the bright side, at least Phoenix's second most used lineup has a 122 defensive rating...wait, what?

Any Celtics Lineup Without Kevin Garnett
To put it simply, the Celtics are absolutely awful when Garnett steps off the court.  Worse than the Wizards kind of awful.  It's not the offense that is the problem (Boston is only 0.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Garnett on), it's the defense.  Only six teams in the three point era have won more than 40 games with a defensive rating as bad as the Celtics' without Garnett.  That may seem like a lot, but all those teams had offensive ratings of at least 110.  The Celtics' offensive rating?  102.  Without Garnett the Celtics have nobody to protect the rim, help, and defensive rebound.  Unless Jared Sullinger or Fab Melo suddenly becomes a defensive stalwart, I'm pegging Boston as a non-contender.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com 

Player File: James Harden

The Player File will appear every weekend and go in-depth on a certain player's strengths and weaknesses, accentuated by video and stills. 

One of the biggest stories going into the season was the James Harden situation.   With Harden up for a contract extension, the Thunder weren’t willing to pay up and promptly traded him in a surprising deal to the Houston Rockets.  I won’t spend this piece ranting on the trade, many have already done that.  My opinion in a couple of sentences: You were a no-call away from being up 2-0 in a series and championship chances don’t come often.  You may get there once and never get back.  Remember when Payton/Kemp, or Walton/Lucas/Hollins were the next big things.  What happened there.  Anyway, Harden was given the five year deal by the Rockets and the rest has been history (literally; only Jordan and Wilt have combined for more points in first two games with a team).  But how is Harden getting his points?  Why is he so efficient?  What makes him such an unstoppable offensive player?  We’ll look at a couple of things from his first two games with the Rockets.

Shot Chart Don’t Lie:

These are the shot charts from Harden’s first two games.  Notice anything? Not many inefficient top of the key threes.  Only a couple midrange jumpers, almost all off the pick and roll.  And SOOOOOO many shots at the rim.  Remember, shot charts don’t even record fouls.  Considering Harden has shot 23 free throws combined over the two games, there are certainly a couple other efficient shots not recorded.  So how does he get these shots?

Transition:

To put it simply, James Harden is a monster in transition.  The combination of his long stride, euro-stepping prowess, and ability to finish through contact make guarding him in this situation nearly impossible.  One of the things that makes him so hard to deal with is the way he holds the ball over his head, tempting opponents to go for the steal and foul him. In transition last year, he drew a foul a whopping 17.6% of the time. The other thing that makes him so tough in this situation is the euro-step.  He can finish with either hand, making it nearly impossible to predict which side he’s going to go to.  And that’s before you factor in that he is weaving from side to side, all the while tempting defenders with the ball.  Last year, transition was 19% of his total offense, second behind the pick and roll per Synergy Sports.  He has already used his transition prowess effectively as you’ll see in this cut-up from the first two games.

Pick and Roll:

The pick and roll is Harden’s bread and butter.  Need a sure two points?  Just clear everybody out and run a high screen and roll.  Harden shot 45% on the pick and roll last year and was fouled almost 17% of the time per Synergy Sports.  His efficiency is due to the fact that he almost always gets to the rim of the pick and roll.  Usually when Harden comes around the screen he sees this:

Harden attacks the body of the big man, keeping him backpedaling.  This doesn’t allow the hedger to recover and set his feet to block a shot.  The ball is once again raised over his head forcing all kinds of silly fouls.  Oh yeah, and if you help off Harden’s teammates in the corners he’s a killer passer.  The main effect of the pick and roll is springing for an attack Harden at the rim.  And from Hoopdata.com: He shot 70% at the rim last year, 9^th in the NBA among guards (ironically one spot ahead of Kevin Martin).  Some of Harden’s pick and rolls so far this year:

 

Spot Ups and Cuts

Going by points per possession from Synergy Sports, Harden was the 3^rd ranked cutter and 28^th ranked spot up shooter.  That’s pretty damn good.  Harden’s basketball IQ contributes to his strong sense of when and where to cut and his ability to finish in traffic comes in handy once he gets the ball.  When it comes to spot ups, Harden is just a flat up good shooter.  His 58 eFG% last year on threes put him top thirty in the league, and this season Harden has been hitting them as efficiently as ever.  One of the most common shots you see Harden take is the wing three off of a dribble handoff from a big man (most notably Nick Collison last year).  His astounding 1.32 PPP on handoff plays last year was ranked first in the NBA by Synergy Sports, and he shot above 50% on three pointers on this play type.  We haven’t seen that Collison play yet, but it is sure to pop into the playbook at some point.

The San Antonio Spurs' Game Winning Play

After a Tony Parker tying three and an ensuing Kawhi Leonard steal, Coach Gregg Popovich called time to draw up what would be the winning play.  San Antonio came out with the man the Thunder were keying on, Tony Parker on the wing.

Stephen Jackson begins to curl to the baseline and Parker cuts to the corner.  Danny Green (in the block/charge circle) begins to make his move to the top of the key.  The Spurs could have just started out in the positions that result from this play, but all the early movement can force switches and confuse a defense.

 Danny Green gets the ball after a screen from Tim Duncan and waits.  Notice on the baseline how far Russell Westbrook is from his man, Parker.

Parker starts to run baseline and Westbrook tries to go over the screens.

Then, Green starts dribbling right and inexplicably, Westbrook completely abandons his man.  You can see Parker completely alone on the far side.  You can also see that Serge Ibaka isn't interested in Parker at all.  With Westbrook not there, he can't call for a switch or warn the probable help defender, Ibaka.

As you can see in this final shot, Parker's defender is on the complete opposite side of the court and the helper is miles away.  Parker takes a bounce and hits the game winning jumper at the buzzer.  Although this was a great play by the Spurs, a lot of blame has to fall on the Thunder defense and Westbrook.  Westbrook probably wouldn't have jumped right in the first place if there had been more communication.  It is understandable that the defense is rusty in the season opener, but this is something that will have to be watched moving forward.
Here is the play:
 

NBA Power Rankings: The Three Title Contenders

KD and LBJ start right where they left off

 
Media day has passed, training camp has begun, and the preseason is about to get underway.  With a mere three weeks to go until the regular season, it's time to arbitrarily rank the teams.  The rankings are decided by a combination of outlook, current affairs, and other completely subjective categories.  This first post focuses on the three teams that I think have a real possibility of winning the title.

1. Miami Heat
The best player on the planet, the all time three pointers made leader, the best shooting guard in the league, and a big man who saved them from a playoff collapse.  Who knows what crazy lineups coach Erik Spoelstra will throw out there, but no matter who is on the floor, everything will revolve around LeBron James.  James will be guarding power forwards on one end and running the whole offense on the other.  He has hinted at living in the paint like he did during the Finals, and if that doesn't scare NBA teams I don't know what does.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder did not make any big moves to keep pace with the Lakers, instead opting to let their players natural improvement better the team.  Why are the Thunder ahead of the Lakers you ask?  Guards.  Steve Nash is a shadow on defense and at this point Kobe Bryant is just going on reputation.  There is no doubt that Dwight Howard is the best defensive player in the league, but there is just no way he will be able to stop James Harden and Russel Westbrook every single time they easily slice into the lane.  Also, Kendrick Perkins has always been Superman's kryptonite and OKC still has a far superior bench than Los Angeles.  Either way, I'm looking forward to some fun spring battles.    

3. Los Angeles Lakers
On second thought, I do know what else would scare NBA teams.  This.  I am incredibly excited to see what this team does with its various weapons.   On paper there is no doubt in my mind that this is the best team in the NBA.  On paper.  I remember that being said about a certain team in 2004.  The parallels are stunning.  The injured big man (Karl Malone/Dwight Howard), and veteran point guard (Gary Payton/Steve Nash).  Now I doubt that this team will have some of the work ethic, and ego issues that that team had, but there are still some wrinkles that need to be creased.  Kobe has never had to deal with a ball dominant backcourt mate like Nash before and vice-versa.  To put it kindly, Pau Gasol has not been playing the most inspiring basketball lately and anything can happen with Ron A  Metta World Peace on the floor.  The biggest question of course is Dwight Howard.  If Howard can play at the level he has before for the Magic, and just do not see how this team can be stopped.  Lets go through the options: Nash/Howard pick and roll (quivering on the floor), Nash/Gasol pick and pop, Gasol or Howard post up, Kobe ISO, MWP corner three.  Did I tell you that I can't wait to see this team?

Saturday: The next tier