Saturday, December 22, 2012

Misadventures in Shot Selection

  • LaMarcus Aldridge averages the most long twos per game in the NBA.  He shoots 37% on them.  He shoots 45% in the post.  We always want big men to develop pick and pop jumpers, but it seems Aldridge has grown far too in love with his.  NBA analysts are clamoring for Blake Griffin to develop a jump shot, but the simple question remains: why?  I would rather have him posting up and taking efficient shots at the rim than taking long twos.  Aldridge is the coveted big man with a jumper and it seems to have hurt more than helped.
  • Monta Ellis averages the second most long twos per game and shoots a mark one percentage point lower than Aldridge's.  The Warriors are 17-9 and won a game on an unselfish play that would have last year been an Ellis step-back long two.  The Bucks are +0.6 per 48 minutes when Ellis is on the bench and -2.0 per 48 when he plays.  Even if Andrew Bogut never plays a minute in a Warriors uniform, the trade was the right move.  Hey Bucks fans, enjoy 3 clanked long jumpers a game while the chucker that put them up restricts your younger players playing time.
  • Dion Waiters' shooting as a whole hasn't been pretty this year.  It starts at the rim where he is shooting an unheard of 34-90, 37.8% (league average: 63.9%).  He is actually shooting fairly well from the midrange, but shooting poorly from deep for a player whose main role on the team is to shoot.  So Waiters is basically the opposite of any normal, efficient player right now.  Horrible at the rim and from deep and above average on midrange shots.
  • Regression!  Damian Lillard is still taking 5 shots per game from 25-29 feet despite his 34.7% shooting from that range and 54.8% of his makes are unassisted.  I love Lillard as much as anybody, but it would be beneficial for him to stop taking those long threes off the dribble.
  • Ahhh, finally we've gotten around to the epitome of poor shot selection: Josh Smith.  J-Smoove takes 3 shots per game from the 20-24 feet range despite making only 29% of these shots.  Josh Smith really could be one of the best twenty players in the league, but he won't be until he eliminates this from his game.
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