Misadventures in Shot Selection

• LaMarcus Aldridge averages the most long twos per game in the NBA.  He shoots 37% on them.  He shoots 45% in the post.  We always want big men to develop pick and pop jumpers, but it seems Aldridge has grown far too in love with his.  NBA analysts are clamoring for Blake Griffin to develop a jump shot, but the simple question remains: why?  I would rather have him posting up and taking efficient shots at the rim than taking long twos.  Aldridge is the coveted big man with a jumper and it seems to have hurt more than helped.
• Monta Ellis averages the second most long twos per game and shoots a mark one percentage point lower than Aldridge's.  The Warriors are 17-9 and won a game on an unselfish play that would have last year been an Ellis step-back long two.  The Bucks are +0.6 per 48 minutes when Ellis is on the bench and -2.0 per 48 when he plays.  Even if Andrew Bogut never plays a minute in a Warriors uniform, the trade was the right move.  Hey Bucks fans, enjoy 3 clanked long jumpers a game while the chucker that put them up restricts your younger players playing time.
• Dion Waiters' shooting as a whole hasn't been pretty this year.  It starts at the rim where he is shooting an unheard of 34-90, 37.8% (league average: 63.9%).  He is actually shooting fairly well from the midrange, but shooting poorly from deep for a player whose main role on the team is to shoot.  So Waiters is basically the opposite of any normal, efficient player right now.  Horrible at the rim and from deep and above average on midrange shots.
• Regression!  Damian Lillard is still taking 5 shots per game from 25-29 feet despite his 34.7% shooting from that range and 54.8% of his makes are unassisted.  I love Lillard as much as anybody, but it would be beneficial for him to stop taking those long threes off the dribble.
• Ahhh, finally we've gotten around to the epitome of poor shot selection: Josh Smith.  J-Smoove takes 3 shots per game from the 20-24 feet range despite making only 29% of these shots.  Josh Smith really could be one of the best twenty players in the league, but he won't be until he eliminates this from his game.

Statistics courtesy of NBA.com             

Rookie File: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Damian Lillard

 

Rookie File will come out weekly and take a look at a couple of rookie's performances so far this season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats

MKG has lived up to his do-everything reputation thus far averaging 8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2 assists 1.7 steals, and 2 blocks per game.  He's also been incredibly important to his team.  With the Kentucky product on the bench, the Bobcats have a -33.6 net rating per the NBA stats tool.  That means they are outscored by 33.6 points per 100 possessions.  With Kidd-Gilchrist on the court, however, they are outscoring opponents by nearly twelve points, a swing of more than forty points.  In addition, the 'Cats are shooting better from almost everywhere on the court with MKG in.  This guy was touted as a winner who did all the little things to make his team better and that's what he is showing so far.     

Damian Lillard, Trailblazers

Talked about by many as a dark-horse rookie of the year, Lillard has quickly become more than that, leading the race with Anthony Davis injured.  He has asserted himself as the Trailblazer's starting point guard, averaging 37 minutes per game.  In those minutes, he has produced.  Do you want to know how many other players have averaged at least a 19, 3.8, and 8 as a rookie (in the shot clock era)?  Two.  Damon Stoudamire and Oscar Robertson.  37% of Lillard's offense so far has been the pick and roll.  His 0.87 PPP (points per possession) as the pick and roll ball handler is ranked fifth in the league and he's only turning it over 9.7% of the time, surprisingly good for a rookie.  For someone not known as a passing wizard, he has shown great recognition and timing.  Lillard is without a doubt the top rookie so far.  

The Trailblazers' Beautiful First Play

A lot of NBA coaches like to start off the game with a set play.  It can hopefully get an easy look for a player and start a little bit offensive rhythm.  Portland's first play against Los Angeles was drawn up by Terry Stotts and executed to perfection by the players.

LaMarcus Aldridge gets the ball at the high post from Damian Lillard who then cuts and gets a brush screen from Nic Batum.  This initial action is really just to keep the defense guessing and maybe
create a switch.

Next comes a little dribble handoff between Aldridge and Batum.  Again, this is just to create some space and distract from the real action: a back screen by J. J. Hickson and backdoor cut by Wes Mathews.

Batum delivers and absolutely beautiful bounce pass between two defenders to the cutting Mathews.  Blake Griffin was distracted by the strongside action and can't help in time leaving an easy layup: