What's Wrong With The Celtics?

Having lost six of their past eight including three of their last four by double figures, the Celtics are a team in turmoil.  Players are being thrown in the trade machine, Paul Pierce is looking older by the day, and Rajon Rondo isn't the star he is supposed to be.  I've taken a look at three things that have made the Celtics a below 0.500 team so far and that will ultimately bring them to their doom.

1. Offensive Rebounding
We've all heard it a million times; the Celtics give up offensive rebounding opportunities for transition defense.  Well right now the Celtics are doing neither.  They sit dead last in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate and are last in transition defense per mySynergySports.  It's a lose-lose situation right now.

2. Kevin Garnett
The Celtics' reliance on Kevin Garnett right now is absurd.  He might be the only above average big man on the roster defense and rebounding wise.  The impact he is making when he steps on the floor is incredible.  With Garnett off the floor the Cs' defensive rating skyrockets to 111.1 a mark which is awfully close to 114.7, the worst for a team in NBA history.  When he is on the court though, Boston's defensive rating is 95.9, a mark that would be number one in the league.  There is a similar trend in defensive rebounding rate.  Without him, they would rank 29th in the league in DRR, but with him would rank 1st.  They're efficiency differential without him would be last in the league.  So essentially for 40% (the percentage of minutes the Cs have played without KG) of their minutes, the Celtics are the worst team in the league.

3. Rajon Rondo
Some people were talking about Rajon Rondo as a legitimate MVP candidate before the season.  How funny that looks now.  He is getting to the line an absurdly low 2.4 times per 40 minutes and is only taking 4.3 shots at the rim per game.  The fact that he is only contributing 12 points per game is especially infuriating when you look at the fact that his oft criticized jumper is doing quite well; he is shooting over 50% from 16-23 feet.  The assertiveness that Boston fans hoped for before the season hasn't shown its self.        

                   

Lineup Watch 12/10/12

The Good


Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, [insert big man here]
To say this four man lineup has been awesome would be an understatement.  We're not even going to talk about the incredible 128.2 points per 100 possessions.  This lineup would obviously seem like an offensive juggernaut, but it's the other things that are so surprising.  Despite its the small nature, this lineup's total rebound rate is well above league average and they aren't fouling either.  They are defending at a high level, especially for a small lineup.  Now all they need is for Scott Brooks to give them more burn.

Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao
Nope, this isn't a mistake.  This lineup is actually supposed to be under the "Best" lineups header.  When not injured, this Cleveland starting five is actually one of the best in the league.  Their 11.6 net rating is 0.2 above the Heat's starting lineups and well above the Thunder's.  They have a healthy 109.3 offensive rating, slightly surprising when you take into account the lack of shooting from either forward (I dare you to look at Gee and Thompson's shooting splits.  It's not pretty).  The good defense is mostly due to Varejao's brilliance and the improvement of Thompson.  The best part of this lineup is the rebounding.  The offensive rebounding to specific.  Varejao and Thompson are ranked 3 and 23 respectively in offensive rebounding rate.  If this lineup was a team it would lead the league by a mile.  Why are the Cavs so horrible then?  Their next three most played lineups have a combined -36.1 in net rating.

The Bad

Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat
They've played the eleventh most minutes in the league.  They have a -17.7 Net Rating.  If they were a team, they would be 0.1 away from having the worst offensive rating in the league and would easily have the worst defensive rating.  Ladies and gentlemen, it's your 2012-13 Phoenix Suns starting lineup.  Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley have never been a creators and to say that about Michael Beasley would be a compliment.  They have no focus on offense to go to.  We haven't even gotten to defense yet.  Scola has never been a great defensive player and what skills he had are declining as he ages.  Marcin Gortat is slow in his rotations and has trouble containing guards on pick and roll plays.  If the perimeter players are being blown by (which they are), there's not much help inside.  Hey, look on the bright side, at least Phoenix's second most used lineup has a 122 defensive rating...wait, what?

Any Celtics Lineup Without Kevin Garnett
To put it simply, the Celtics are absolutely awful when Garnett steps off the court.  Worse than the Wizards kind of awful.  It's not the offense that is the problem (Boston is only 0.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Garnett on), it's the defense.  Only six teams in the three point era have won more than 40 games with a defensive rating as bad as the Celtics' without Garnett.  That may seem like a lot, but all those teams had offensive ratings of at least 110.  The Celtics' offensive rating?  102.  Without Garnett the Celtics have nobody to protect the rim, help, and defensive rebound.  Unless Jared Sullinger or Fab Melo suddenly becomes a defensive stalwart, I'm pegging Boston as a non-contender.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com 

NBA Power Rankings: The Second Tier

Manú is excited that his team is 4th in the DTA power rankings

We continue the power rankings series with the teams just below the top three.  Teams that aren't quite elite yet or just fading from the top.  If you missed part 1 click here.


4. San Antonio Spurs
As long as Gregg Popovich is in charge and the Spurs will always be somewhat of a contender.  This team has been the number one seed in consecutive years, but lost in the playoffs twice.  Lets face, San Antonio will be a top three seed in the west.  Manú and Parker will still run pick and rolls and Duncan will still shoot his bank shot.  Once again, R. C. Buford has assembled a cast of role players whose skills blend perfectly with the big three's.  There is no doubt this team can beat anybody, but we all saw what happened against OKC last year and Memphis the year before that.

5. Boston Celtics
Out with Ray Allen, in with Jason Terry and Courtney Lee.  With the exception of the Jeff Green deal, I loved everything Boston did this offseason.  Terry and Lee can be versatile scorers that can start or come off the pine.  To grab top 7 talent Jared Sullinger with the 21st pick was also huge.  I doubt that the Cs will be able to knock off Miami in the East, but they came as close could last year and should again this season.

6. Indiana Pacers
Another team a whisker away from knocking off Miami was the Pacers.  The Brendan Haywood for Darren Collison trade and the Roy Hibbert max deal were questionable moves.  The Pacers backcourt depth will be limited this year, but an intimidating front line should help that.  The organization knows they are not going to beat the Heat using small ball, Indiana's only chance is to outsize them.  With the expected jump from Paul George, this team should be sitting right where it wants to come playoff time: near the top and ready to make some noise.

Monday: 4 gunning for the four seed