Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Week 6 EPL Ratings, Now With Offensive and Defensive Ratings

The rankings are back, updated with all the games through week six.

Refresher on the methodology: I look at every game this season and adjust for home court advantages and opponent strength. It then runs through about 10000 iterations to get the most stable estimate of true ability. The output is the expected value in X statistic in a game on a neutral field against an average Premier League opponent. This week I've added shots (offense) and shots allowed (defense), with the top and bottom four in each highlighted. I've also added points, for some more context.

Some notes:
  • Tottenham and Chelsea have absolutely dominated, and are both top three in every category. 
  • Sunderland have put up just one point and an abysmal goal differential, but how much of that is luck and schedule? TSR isn't perfect, but it indicates that Sunderland may actually be a competent side. 
  • Arsenal and Liverpool are both at the top of the table and are outscoring opponents in bunches, but they aren't doing as well as would be expected in shot count, which indicates that they'll regress to the mean a bit. 
  • Fulham is terrible by every measure. 

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