English Premier League Statistical Power Ratings

These are essentially an EPL version of Basketball Reference's SRS rating. Every team's rating is based on home-field adjusted margin of victories and strength of schedule (Which is based on these ratings, which creates a recursive loop. Matrix algebra solves that for us).

The output is the expected goal differential of each team against an average team on a neutral field.

SRS and a team's actual points have a correlation of 0.721 (1 is perfect correlation, 0 is none).

This already reveals some interesting things about the league this year. Arsenal, Tottenham, and Newcastle aren't as good as their records make them out to be, and West Ham and Aston Villa are a lot better than what their records show. Two things are agreed upon: Liverpool is really good and Sunderland is awful.

I'll be updating this weekly throughout the season and things will get more stable as more games are played.